2026 Midterm Elections: Will Mortgage Rates Finally Drop? What the Battle for Congress Means for South LA Real Estate

With control of Congress on the line, homeowners, buyers and real estate investors across Long Beach, Inglewood, Carson, Torrance and the South Bay are asking one big question: Could the election finally bring some relief to the housing market?

By Maiyah Jimenez | Real Estate Broker, REAL REMAX Group 

November 4, 2026

The 2026 midterm elections are about more than which political party controls Congress. For millions of Americans, they're also about the cost of living, economic uncertainty and one of the biggest financial decisions they'll ever make: buying or selling a home.

And here in South Los Angeles County, those concerns hit particularly close to home.

Whether you're a first-time buyer hoping to purchase in Gardena, a homeowner considering selling in Carson, or an investor evaluating a multifamily property in Inglewood, you're probably wondering:

Will mortgage rates finally come down? Will home prices become more affordable? And could a change in Congress create new opportunities in real estate?

After 12 years working as a real estate broker throughout South Los Angeles County, I've learned that national headlines can influence buyer confidence, but local market conditions ultimately determine what happens to individual properties.

Let's break down what the midterm elections could mean for our housing market, without the political noise.

Why the 2026 Midterm Elections Matter for Real Estate

On November 3, Americans voted for representatives in Congress, with control of both the House and Senate at stake.

The outcome could influence the direction of federal housing policy, government spending, tax legislation and programs designed to improve homeownership opportunities.

Depending on the final results, Washington could see continued Republican control, a divided Congress or a Democratic majority in one or both chambers.

Each outcome could produce different priorities and levels of cooperation on housing legislation.

Here's what matters most to the real estate industry:

• Housing affordability: Could Congress expand assistance for first-time buyers or encourage more housing construction?

• Real estate taxes: Could future legislation change incentives affecting homeowners, investors and property transactions?

• Housing supply: Will federal policies encourage construction, rehabilitation and development?

• Government spending: Could fiscal policy influence inflation and borrowing costs?

• Mortgage financing: Will broader economic conditions make borrowing more affordable?

These are important questions, but there's one distinction every homeowner and real estate professional should understand.

Congress does not directly set mortgage interest rates.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop After the Midterm Elections?

This is probably the biggest question I'm hearing from buyers and sellers.

The answer is that mortgage rates could decline, but the election itself doesn't guarantee lower rates.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% as of October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% the previous week.

That's encouraging movement, but it's still considerably higher than the 6.17% average recorded a year earlier.

So what would actually need to happen for rates to fall further?

1. Inflation needs to ease

Mortgage lenders and bond investors pay close attention to inflation.

When inflation expectations remain elevated, investors generally demand higher yields to compensate for the declining purchasing power of future payments.

Lower inflation expectations can help reduce longer-term borrowing costs.

2. Treasury yields need to cooperate

Mortgage rates are closely connected to the bond market, particularly yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

If Treasury yields decline and mortgage spreads remain stable, mortgage rates may follow.

However, concerns about government borrowing, inflation or financial uncertainty can push yields higher.

3. The Federal Reserve matters, but it doesn't control mortgage rates directly

The Federal Reserve sets short-term monetary policy.

Mortgage rates, on the other hand, reflect longer-term financial market expectations.

That means a Federal Reserve rate cut doesn't automatically translate into an equivalent reduction in 30-year mortgage rates.

And a midterm election victory by either political party doesn't automatically produce a rate cut.

My perspective

I would caution buyers against assuming mortgage rates will fall simply because the election is over.

Instead, watch inflation reports, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy and the overall direction of the economy.

Those indicators provide more useful information than election headlines alone.

What Could a Change in Congress Mean for Housing Policy?

The next Congress could influence several areas that matter to California homeowners and real estate professionals.

Housing affordability and first-time buyer assistance

Lawmakers could consider policies involving down payment assistance, housing tax incentives, affordable housing development or financing programs.

For first-time buyers in communities such as Compton, Hawthorne, Gardena and Long Beach, additional assistance could potentially help reduce the upfront cost of purchasing.

But any new program would depend on legislation, funding, eligibility rules and implementation.

Housing construction and supply

One of California's longstanding housing challenges is the gap between available homes and demand.

Federal incentives for housing development, infrastructure improvements and financing could encourage additional construction.

However, local zoning, permitting, construction costs and California housing laws will continue to play major roles.

Real estate taxes and investment incentives

Investors and property owners should monitor proposals involving capital gains, depreciation, 1031 exchanges, property-related deductions and federal housing incentives.

These policies can affect the financial decisions of rental property owners and investors.

For example, an investor selling a duplex in Long Beach or a five-unit building in Inglewood may need to evaluate the tax implications of selling versus holding.

No one should assume existing tax benefits will change until legislation actually becomes law.

What This Means for South Los Angeles County Real Estate

National policy can influence the overall housing market, but every neighborhood responds differently.

Here's how I would evaluate the potential effects locally.

Long Beach: Buyers may return, but inventory still matters

Long Beach has a diverse housing market that includes condominiums, historic single-family homes, duplexes and larger multifamily properties.

If mortgage rates decline meaningfully, some buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines may reenter the market.

That could increase competition for well-priced homes.

For sellers, the key will be understanding how many comparable properties are available and what buyers are actually willing to pay.

Inglewood: Affordability and investment opportunities remain important

Inglewood continues to attract attention for its residential neighborhoods, rental housing and proximity to major entertainment destinations.

For buyers, financing costs will remain an important consideration.

For multifamily investors, I would pay particular attention to rental income, operating expenses, insurance, property condition and the cost of financing.

A lower mortgage rate can improve an investment's numbers, but it doesn't automatically make every property a good investment.

Carson: Move-up buyers and homeowners face different decisions

Carson has many established neighborhoods where homeowners have accumulated equity over time.

Some owners may want to downsize, relocate or purchase a larger home but hesitate because they currently have a lower mortgage rate.

If borrowing costs decline, more homeowners could feel comfortable making a move.

However, selling and purchasing in the same market requires careful planning, especially when coordinating both transactions.

Torrance and the South Bay: Purchasing power could shift

In higher-priced South Bay markets, even relatively small mortgage rate changes can have a noticeable effect on monthly payments.

That makes interest rates especially important for buyers comparing homes in Torrance, Redondo Beach and neighboring communities.

But lower rates can also bring additional competition.

A more affordable mortgage doesn't necessarily mean a lower purchase price.

Gardena, Hawthorne and Compton: Opportunity depends on the numbers

For buyers exploring these communities, affordability is often about more than the listing price.

Property taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing and potential renovation expenses all affect the actual cost of ownership.

The best opportunity may be a property that fits your budget today rather than one that depends on an uncertain future rate reduction.

How Much Could Lower Mortgage Rates Actually Save Buyers?

Let's use a hypothetical $750,000 home purchase with a 20% down payment.

That creates a $600,000 mortgage.

Mortgage Rate	Monthly Principal & Interest
7.24%	$4,092
6.75%	$3,892
6.50%	$3,792
6.00%	$3,597

Illustrative 30-year fixed-rate calculations, rounded to the nearest dollar. Excludes property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance and closing costs. Lower rates are hypothetical scenarios, not forecasts or lender quotes.

If the mortgage rate declined from 7.24% to 6.00%, the payment on this example loan would decrease by approximately $495 per month, or nearly $5,940 annually.

That's meaningful savings.

But here's the other side of the equation: if lower rates encourage more buyers to enter the market while housing inventory remains limited, competition could increase and offset some of those savings through higher prices.

This is why I encourage clients to look at the entire transaction rather than focusing exclusively on the interest rate.

Should You Buy a Home Before Mortgage Rates Drop?

For buyers who are financially prepared, waiting for a specific interest rate can be risky.

You might benefit from lower borrowing costs later, but you could also face more competition or higher home prices.

My recommendation is to focus on three things:

1. Your monthly comfort level. Can you afford the payment today without relying on a future refinance?

2. Your long-term plans. Does the home meet your needs for the foreseeable future?

3. The property's value. Is the asking price supported by recent comparable sales and current market conditions?

If the numbers make sense, buying now may be reasonable.

If they don't, waiting and improving your financial position may be the better decision.

Remember, refinancing later is a possibility, not a guarantee.

Should South LA Homeowners Wait Until After the Election to Sell?

If you're considering selling, I wouldn't base the entire decision on the outcome of the midterm elections.

Instead, I'd evaluate your property's condition, comparable sales, current competition and personal timeline.

A well-maintained home priced appropriately can attract serious buyers even when mortgage rates are elevated.

On the other hand, overpricing a home in anticipation of future rate cuts can lead to longer market time and unnecessary price reductions.

For owners of duplexes, triplexes and larger multifamily properties, rental income, operating expenses, financing conditions and buyer investment returns also deserve close attention.

The right timing depends on your property and your goals, not simply which political party controls Congress.

What Real Estate Professionals Should Be Watching in 2027

For my fellow real estate professionals, the next several months will require more than following headlines.

The agents who provide the most value will be those who can translate economic changes into practical guidance.

I'd focus on monitoring mortgage rate trends, housing inventory, buyer demand, pending sales, days on market and price reductions.

For investment properties, track cap rates, rental trends, insurance expenses and financing availability.

Also pay attention to proposed federal housing legislation, California regulations and local development policies.

Most importantly, help clients distinguish between proposed changes and policies that have actually taken effect.

In an uncertain market, accurate information and realistic expectations are essential.

The Bottom Line: Will the Midterms Change South LA Real Estate?

The 2026 midterm elections could influence housing policy, tax legislation, economic expectations and consumer confidence.

But the election alone won't determine whether mortgage rates rise or fall.

For buyers, sellers and investors throughout Long Beach, Inglewood, Carson, Torrance, Gardena, Hawthorne and Compton, the most important factors will continue to be local inventory, pricing, affordability and individual financial circumstances.

My advice? Don't let political headlines make your real estate decisions for you.

After 12 years in real estate, one thing remains consistent: the best decisions come from understanding your options, studying the local market and having a strategy that makes sense for your situation.

Whether you're considering purchasing your first home, selling a longtime family property or evaluating a multifamily investment, I'm here to help you understand the numbers and your next steps.

Stay Informed with Selling South LA

Want to know how mortgage rates, housing policies and local market trends are affecting your neighborhood?

Subscribe to the weekly newsletter!

Every week, I share real estate insights, neighborhood news, local business spotlights and upcoming events throughout South Los Angeles County and Long Beach.

Stay informed about the communities you love and the real estate market that shapes them.

[Subscribe to the weekly newsletter →]

Maiyah Jimenez
Real Estate Broker | 12 Years of Experience
REAL REMAX Group

This article is provided for general educational purposes and does not constitute financial, tax, legal or mortgage advice. Consult qualified professionals regarding your individual circumstances.